Not so good this weekend with Kryliya Sovetov losing on Saturday and Molde only drawing yesterday. Good result from Colorado Rapids but in vain. Roll on the European season in a couple of weeks and a return to our high level of winning Best Bet Soccer selections.

Overall not too despondent as the Toronto Blue Jays did us well in the MLB and Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA. John Morrison’s system really does appear to be something else. For an excellent review see: http://www.sportsbettingchampreviewer.com.

Hoping for better luck – and selections – next week.

Alex

After being so close last week we intend to get back to winning ways this weekend. We’ve identified what we consider to be very high probability winners and must say we were pleasantly surprised when we checked the odds available.

Selection 1

Our first selection this week is in Russia, kicking off at 12.00 noon (UK time) on Saturday. It’s Krylya Sovetov (7th in league, last 5 (most recent first) DLLWD) who take on Saturn Ramensko (or Saturn Mosk Oblast depending where you look) (12th, WLWWD). Saturn have a good recent record but against what we consider to be inferior opposition to our selection. It was Kryla that drew with Spartac Moscow to ruin the party last week!

Selection 2

We’re back to the U.S. Major League for our next Best Bet Soccer pick where we go for Colorado Rapids (5th in Western Conference, LWLLD) to beat New York Red Bulls (bottom of Eastern Conference, LLLLD). The Rapids’ form isn’t exactly fantastic but we feel that the Red Bulls are very week and they should run out comfortable winners.

Selection 3

For our third selection we’re back to Norway where Molde (2nd, WWWWW) are away to Sandefjord (11th, WLDLL). Molde are going great guns at present and we think they’ll be far too strong for Sandefjord.

The combined odds at Sporting Bet are the best we can find this week returning £334.89 on a £25.00 trixie for potential profit of £234.89.

Wishing you the very best of luck.

Alex

Alex Napier
alex@bestbetsoccer.com

We’d previously posted on our staking policy and unfortunately this was a total loss when our blog was deleted. We’re therefore posting again. It’s not a word for word copy of the original but makes the same points in the same way. 

We’d like to open by saying that we believe a well researched staking policy to be essential to long term soccer betting profits. Yes, you have to make the right selections and choose the correct bet but without a staking policy that enables you to leverage up your winnings but protect you from a losing run you’ll get nowhere the overall level of profits that you should.

We’ve mentioned previously that until March 2009 we were very random with our betting. It’s only when we first realised that we were making consistent profits that we decided to keep a record of our bets. Since March that record has appeared on our website. Rather than include the detail in this posting we’re providing a link so you have the access to the most up to date information. We update the web page usually on a weekly basis and at least monthly so the data is as current as we can keep it. Here is the link:

Best Bet Soccer History Of Bets

So that you can verify the bets if you wish we also publish a page of screenshots of our bets that you can check out:

Best Bet Soccer Screenshots

So – on to staking.

To some extent it was guesswork but we felt from our past somewhat random use of our system that our selections (usually three selections bet on in a trixie bet) were all winners at least one week in three. We were also of the view that at least one week in three produced two winners and a partial return of our stake. Statistics for 18 weeks to 3 July 2009 show five winning weeks, nine weeks with two winners and only four weeks with no return at all. On reviewing our selections there are probably two partial returns that should have been winning weeks and two total losses that should at least have been partial returns. We were pushing too hard in those weeks and stepping outside our proven selection criteria!

What this shows is that our original guesswork wasn’t too far adrift.

At the outset we decided that we would have a “betting bank” to cover three weeks staking. It doesn’t matter which way you decide on this. You can either determine the amount of your stake and then put funds into your “betting bank” to cover it three times or you can decide how much you wish to or can afford to put into the “betting bank” and then stake one third of that amount. You don’t actually have to deposit the funds but you should set them aside or be prepared to add additional funds up to the amount of the “betting bank” you decide upon. We set funds aside in a pot to be available if required.

We decided on a bank of £300 and initial stake of £100. This was more because it’s a nice amount for illustration purposes and we were setting out to “prove” our system than for any other reason.

We then introduced £100 from our “betting bank” to a bookmaker account to make our first bet. We were lucky that it was a winner but we deliberately selected cast iron picks at short prices so that that was the case. We’ll touch further upon the selections we make in our closing email but mention here that we are firmly of the view that short odds winners have it over longer priced losers every time!

For the next couple of weeks we were successful with only two of our three selections and therefore achieved only partial return against our stake money. However, what you can see from our betting history is that our running balance remains well on the positive side.  Remember, this balance is our net winnings. We originally introduced £100 from our “betting bank” so we also had that in hand and at no time up to 3 July 2009, the most recent bet prior to the initial publication of this email, had we to introduce additional funds so we still had £200 of our original £300 held in our “betting bank”.

There is an upward trend to our cumulative winnings.

The question we have asked ourselves is when to increase our stake?

We have set ourselves the criteria that we should triple our bank before we increase our stake – and then we double our stake rather than tripling it.

The table below shows that at 12 May our cumulative winnings of £753.90 plus our bank of £300.00 total £1,053.90 – exceeding the £900.00 triple of our starting bank. We could therefore increase our stake to £200.00. But we have a loser and this takes our total bank plus winnings back below £900.00. You can see from the table (click here for table: staking plan example) that we run down to a cumulative loss situation at 26 June but we still have our original £100.00 deposit and £200.00 remaining in our “betting bank” so we were OK for funds to continue to stake from.

What we should do the following week, because our combined cumulative profits of £553.90 and bank of £300.00 had fallen back below the £900.00 triple of our initial “betting bank”, is reduce our stake to £100.00 again. The following table (click here for table: staking plan example 2) shows that the losses then don’t dip anywhere near so low and we could sustain a much longer run from the residual profits and our bank.

Our strategy therefore is very much one of triple the bank, double the stake and if we should be so unfortunate as to fall below these criteria to reduce our stake again. based on our initial bank of £300 we’re therefore looking at the following staking plan(click for table:  staking plan example 3).

You can calculate you own plan based on your initial bank or staking.

We consider a staking policy to be imperative to maintaining solidly based betting profits. This works for our system and if you follow us it should for you too.

We’ve published a slideshow presentation in association with this important part of our soccer betting course:

 Staking Plan Slideshow

If you wish to do so you can register on our website to receive our selections each week:

Best Bet Soccer Registration

As always, wishing you the very best of luck.

Alex Napier

alex@bestbetsoccer.com

We were almost there with Palmeiras winning on Saturday night and Chicago Fire early on Sunday. Spartak Moscow unfortunately failed to come up with the goods. Our one winning double paid £56.25 for a £43.75 loss against our £100.00 stake.

The running total since we started keeping records in March this year is profit of £542.94 on turnover of £2,000.00. That’s a tad over 27% and we’re looking for 67%! We’ve been there and it’s only the couple of weeks that we stepped outside our normal parameters that the main losses occured that have reduced our overall percentage.

We intend pushing the percentage back up over the next few weeks in readiness for the start of the 2009/10 main European season!

We don’t remember where it came from but we received an email with a link to Sports Betting Champ. The email convinced us we should look further at this so we clicked the link and landed on the Sports Betting Champ sales letter. To be blunt, we were astounded at what we were reading. Claims to 97%+ winning bets just didn’t seem believable. We decided to carry out more research.

We trawled the internet for any mention of Sports Betting Champ and read all we could find out about it. There’s tons of stuff there but we were unable to find an uncomlimentary word about it. We learned that the system provides the level of winning bets claimed and that John Morrison, its developer and owner, also provides backup. As well as providing details of his systems and how to use them he  emails “members” with all selections as they arise. So as well as an exceptionally high level of winning bets there’s not even the need to  do any work as the selections are provided by John!

We were so impressed we decided to give it a try. It’s priced reasonably and wasn’t going to break the bank. We haven’t been users for long but so far we’re absolutely delighted with the bets we’ve had. With the systems explained in an easy to understand way, links to the data required and the email service there’s nothing to fault. And we’ve made a profit on all John’s selections!

Click Sports Betting Champ to go directly to John’s webpage or here to see a more detailed review of the systems and service.

Following the loss and restoration of our blog we’ll summarise here the selections and results for the missing period.

We’ll start with 27 and 28 June where our selections were all from Brazil: Atletico Mineiro, Cruzeiro and Palmeiras. We placed a £25 trixie, total stake £100, but unfortunately selected only one winner and there was no return.

Moving on to the next week, our selections were on 3 and 5 July. We went for Bohemians in the Irish Premier League on 3 July, FC Dallas in the U.S. Major League in the early hours (U.K. time) of 5 July and Moulde in the Norwegian Tippellgaen later on 5 July. We were successful with all three selections and the return on our £25 trixie was £380.33 for a profit of £280.33.

Then for 10, 11 and 12 July we were on Derry in the Irish Premier, Palmeiras in Brazil and Rosenborg in Norway. Derry played on the Friday evening and let us down but the other two picks won for a return of £57.78 giving a £42.22 loss on our £25.00 trixie.

That brings us up to date apart from the selections for 18 and 19 July when we’ve gone for Palmeiras in Brazil, Chicago Fire in the U.S. Major League and Spartak Moscow in Russia. They play at 22.30 on 18 July, 1.30 on 19 July and 13.00 on 19 July (U.K. time) respectively.

Fingers crossed!!

We’ve launched an ezine: The Best Bet Soccerzine.

Our intention is to publish each month – July 2009 is issue 1.

There’ll be articles of interest, a resume of the previous month’s bets and perhaps an editorial feature from time to time.

We’ll always be looking for content so if you’d like to write a piece on your favourite team or a topical matter you’re welcome to send it for consideration. Send to Alex at the email address at the top of the sidebar of this blog.

We look forward to hearing from you!

We’ve released a FREE email course on soccer betting.

It covers the three key elements of making the selections, the type of bet to use and the staking policy. It’s totally free and without obligation. To register to receive the instalments click here.

Good luck!

Results went against us this week with Palmeiras drawing and Fluminese being beaten in Brazil. Huracan in Argentina had a good win but for us it was too little too late. The odds offered against Palmeiras and Flumonese seemed generous and we’ve learned a lesson that we relly should take more notice of the odds makers in our calculations. Yes, it’s tempting to grab the better prices, as we did, but what’s the point if the result is a total loss for the weekend?

We’ll continue to give soccer priority but until the European leagues start up again in August we amy include selections from other sports wherte they meet our criteria.

Stay tuned in to keep up to date with our picks.

We’re early with our selections this week. South America again with two in Brazil and one in Argentina.

Very quickly:

Brazil, 9.10 p.m. Saturday, Palmeira; Brazil 11.30 p.m. Sturday, Fluminese; Argentina 10.00 p.m Sunday, Huracan.

Our £25 trixie with Bet 365 odds would return £637.50 (£537.50 profit) if all win. Long odds this week but we rate all three very highly.

Good luck. Please don’t risk more than you can afford to lose.

We were absolutely amazed that Lanus (top) lost to the bottom of the league – and 4-1  too!

Delighted that Universarios Depotes Lima won and then Atletico Mineiro followed up in Brazil in what appears to have been a bad tempered game – 1 sent off for Mineiro and 2 for Nautico! One double up this week.

Gives us a small loss of £21 – return £79 – for our Best Bet Soccer trixie this week.

We’ve already posted on why at Best Bet Soccer we most use the trixie. We felt that we should also explain the ethic behind this bet selection.

When we set out on the road to identify a system for making selections and placing bets to produce consistent profits in the long term we carried out tests of various bets and recorded the results. The key consideration was profits in the long term. We’re not here to get rich quick but to continue generating income for many years.

It quickly became aparent that there were several factors to take into account:

• To produce worthwhile profits it is necessary to take advantage of the leveraged odds produced by multiple bets.
• The number of selections in the multiple(s) needed to be sufficiently low to stand a good chance of producing all winners.
• The type of bet selection should be such that although not all selections may win there could still be a return thus minimising losses.
• That singles in the combination were fine if all selections were winners but due to soccer betting odds it is often the position that two winners do not make up for a single loser.

We were therefore looking for a multiple selection bet but with a low number of selections and no win singles.

We tested (with hypothetical bets using the best odds we could identify online) the trixie (three selections giving four bets – full perm of  three doubles and one treble) and the yankie (four selections giving eleven bets – full perm of six doubles, full perm of four trebles and one four pick accumulator). We were able to determine that where our Best Bet Soccer selection system first pick and second pick almost always won the third pick was less certain and the fourth was significantly more risky.

Our “flagship” bet is therefore became the trixie. Compared to a greater number of selections there is a much higher chance that all (three) of our picks win, if two of our selections (high probability) win losses are minimised and we have an acceptable degree of leverage of multiple betting.

So, that’s why at Best Bet Soccer we almost always recommend the trixie.

Please bet responsibly.

All of our selections this week are in South America.

In Argentina we’ve gone for CA Lanus (1st in league) away to Arsenal de Sarandi (20th – of 20). Lanus have won their last three whereas the best de Sarandi have managed is only two draws in the last five! The best multiple bet soccer odds we’ve identified this week are offered by Bet 365. We consider the 19/20 they offer on Lanus to be particularly good value. It’s like Manchester United against West Brom! Kick off is UK time 11.20 p.m. on Saturday.

The next match (KO UK 6.30 p.m. Sunday) is in Peru where Universitario Deportes Lima (sometimes refered to as Universitario Peru – 4th in league) are away to Sport Ancash Huaraz (15th – of 16). Lima aren’t exactly firing on all four cylinders at present . Their last five results (most recent first) have been DDLDW. But Huaraz are on a run of LLLLD! We really can’t see Lima (17/20 with Bet 365) dropping points here.

The final selection for our multiple bet soccer trixie this week is in Brazil (KO UK 9.00 p.m. Sunday) where where we go for Atletico Mineiro(2nd  - WDWWD) (odds 7/10 with  Bet 365) at home to Nautico (5th  - LDWWD). Mineiro are heading towards the top of the league and Nautico are on the slide. With home advantage we cannot see Mineiro doing anything but win this “six pointer”.

A £25 trixie (£100 total stake) with  Bet 365 should return £405.01 – profit £305.01.

Please bet responsibly.

As always we wish you all good luck.

(Odds are correct at time of posting but are liable to change)

Portugal had us on the edge of our seats. We couldn’t believe that Albania could hold them to a 1-1 draw.  Alves got us off the hook in the “90th minute” for a 2-1 win.

Bolivia’s home form (won two and drawn one of last three including beating Argentina 6-1 in April) went down the pan with their 1-0 defeat by Venezuela.

Brazil bailed us out at odds of 7/5 for their fantastic 4-0 win away to Uruguay for a return of £81.82 giving a net loss of only £18.18 of our £100.00 stake. They’re favourites to win World Cup 2010 at odds of about 5/1 and we can’t see anyone beating them! It’s a bit long range but could be worth a bet now!

We will from time to time review a selected website. For our first review we’ve selected sportingbet.

First we recommend that you click the link (the banner) above to have a look at the site.

What we really like about it is the up to date in play information provided on the site.

Looking at the odds for our Best Bet Soccer selections this weekend they aren’t high on the list of best returns but we think they’re worth keeping in our table. It costs you nothing so why not open an account so that you’re ready to go when they come out best?

We’ve now had a chance to review the world cup qualifiers and come up with what we consider to be an excellent value trixie.

On the face of it Portugal are a skinny price at 4/11 but it’s Albania they’re playing which we consider makes this an excellent, good value multiple bet soccer selection
We consider other European matches to be either trappy or poor value so have looked at South America for our remaining two selections.

Bolivia (9th in qualifying table) are home to Venezuela (8th) and we think home advantage will give them the edge in a game they both need to win. At 4/9 they seem good value.

Then we come to the gem – Brazil. OK, they may be short of a couple or so that would be first picks but they’re favouritesto win the World Cup and 7/5 is, we think, excellent value away to Uruguay.

We’ve placed our £25 trixie (£100) total stake with BlueSquare for a potential return of £335.91 (£235.91 profit at combined odds slightly better than 9/4 we’re more than happy with these Best Bet Soccer selections.

With the top European leagues’ season well and truly ended and a lull in the South American season there’re insufficient qualifiers this week for multiple bet soccer selections.

Now and again we include sports other than soccer. When our subscription service is up and running we will certainly do so when we are unable to produce a trixie with multiple bet soccer selections.

This week we’ll review what other sporting opportunities exist and post again, either on Friday evening or Saturday morning, if any selections arise.

Why not check back around or shortly after 11.00 a.m. UK time to find out?

With the main European leagues’ seasons come to an end we will turn to South America for our selections for the next several weeks. The UK Premier League gets under way on 15 August. Until then we’ll concentrate on Argentina, Brazil and the other Latin American leagues.

The standout Best Bet Soccer selection is in Argentina where leaders Lanus are 4/6 at home to 13th plsced San Lorenzo De Almagro.

In Brazil Internacional are top of Serie A having won their three matches to date but are 4/9 at home to Avai, who are in 13th place having drawn all three of their matches. Nautico in second place (WWD) look to have their work cut out although they are at home to Fluminese (12th: LDW). Our selection is Atletico Minero (WWD) at 1/2 at home to Santo Andre (7th: LWD).

Back to Europe for our third selection. In France Bordeaux have hit the top of the league at the right time, with one match left. A point will do them away to lowly Caen, who need a win to gurantee they stay out of the bottem three. If Caen lose or draw and St Etienne win, which is a distinct possibility at home to Valenciennes, they’re down. So we have to pass on Bordeaux.  Marseilles in second place are 4/9 at home to 7th placed Stade Rennes. Only a win can see Marseilles go back to the top and then only if by two goals and if Bordeaux lose. But they must go for it and we make them our selection.

So our Best Bet Soccer trixie this week is Lanus (Argentina) 4/6, Atletico Minero (Brazil) 1/2 and Marseilles (France) 4/9. The return on a £25 trixie (total stake £100) is £267.13 (with BlueSquare – click icon below) at the time of writing this post. So combined odds of a little better than 13/8. Not fantastic but it’s because the market makers agree with us that these selections have very good chances.

Why at Best Bet Soccer Selections do we favour the trixie?

There are many reasons but to appreciate them you must first grasp the fact that soccer betting odds, particularly on teams that can be identified as having an outstanding winning opportunity, are fundamentaly low. Yes, by careful selection of value bets consistent profits can be made. But it is necessary to appreciate that matches regularly throw up surprise results so the policy must be to minimise losses when they arise. At Best Bet Soccer Selections we believe that the “trixie” is the right bet to achieve this.

Obviously the lower the number of selections the less the likelihood of a rogue result affecting us and, conversely, the greater the number of selections the higher the chance of an upset. Against this it is necessary to measure the compounding effect of multiple bets and the possibility of low stake, high return bets – if successful. But try a few dry runs. Take our three selections this weekend and then add another three of your own for a six match accumulator. There are three possible outcomes for each selection – win, lose or draw. What is the total of possible outcomes? 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 – thats a possible 729 combinations of results. If you make six win selections all at odds of 4/6 the potential return is a little over 20/1! If they’re all at even money the return is only 63/1. No wonder the bookmakers like high number multiple and accumulator bets! 

At Best Bet Soccer we have developed a formula to consistently make a small number of winning selections each week. By limiting our selections to only the three top rated or top value selections we identify we significantly reduce the chances of that rogue result creeping in. Over the last few weeks we have pushed the boundaries to the limit and on a couple of occassions included picks which were really outside the strict application of our criteria – and paid for it. We’ll now be restricting ourselves to our top rated selections for a few weeks to consolidate our winnings in readiness for the start of the 2009/10 European season. The UK Premier League kicks off on 15 August!

Back to the trixie.

Over a period of time we’ve weighed up the value of various combination bets.

We totally rule our single bets. At the short odds generally available two winners may not make up for one loser. We therefore concentrate on low number combinations. Our experience shows us that the fourth ranked selection produced by our system is much higher risk than our top three selections. With four selections the full perm of doubles and trebles plus the accumulator of the four produces eleven bets. If one of those loses we’re down to a maximum of only four successful combinations and if a second selection loses we’re down to only one!

With the trixie we do not have that higher risk fourth selection and we have a much lower number of possible permutations – only three doubles and a treble. We minimise our losses if two selections win and make acceptable profits if all three win. Have a look at the history page on the bestbetsoccer.com website. It may not seem earth shattering but the trend is a gradually increasing accumulation of winnings. We’re sure you will agree that regular winnings and minimised losses are far preferable to lose, lose, lose – week, after week, after week!

We recommend a staking plan to apply with the trixie so you can build up your betting bank to enable you to stake at levels to generate quite worthwhile returns using our Best Bet Soccer Selections.

We’ll be publishing our selections for the weekend late on Friday or early on Saturday. Look out for them.

Well! Nothing went our way on 16 and 17 May. We went for slightly better prices and two selections which were outside our normal criteria. It just goes to show that we shouldn’t break our own rules. Total loss on our £100 stake.

Then on 22 and 23 May our trixie was Athletico Madrid, Marseilles and Palermo. We were strong for Athletico and Marseilles but had some doubts about Palermo. We selected them against others we considered, Hannover and Genoa, both of which won. The Best Bet Soccer loss for the week was £25.96 so the running total since we started recording our bets on 14 March 2009 is +£627.93 to a £100 level stake, 11 bets, all £25 trixies, total stakes £1,100 – so not a bad return on turnover.

Now that the European season is more or less ended we will be concentrating on South American leagues, which are just now getting into full swing for the summer. See our next blog for fuller details of our summer service.