The question often arises, should we hedge our bet or should we let things run their normal course? The answer? It depends!
Even more complicated, should we hedge the first or second bet in a series of three or should we only hedge on the last if the first two selections have won? Again the answer, it depends!
Is there a mathematical formula we can use to determine when we should and should not hedge? Probably not!
What is the purpose of hedging our bets?
First we are seeking to protect our stake should our original bet be unsuccessful. We’ll have a bet on an alternative outcome for the event — or possibly both alternative outcomes in a win, lose and draw situation — to produce a return to cover our total stakes on our original bet and the hedge bets.
Secondly we may wish to generate a profit from our hedge bet so that if our original bet is unsuccessful we still end up in front.
However, it is important to remember that our hedge bet stakes will reduce the profits from our original bet if it is ultimately successful. We therefore need to consider the amount of our stakes quite carefully.
When to hedge remains the question.
Without getting technical, the time to hedge is when we can arrive at a position where, following the hedge bet(s) we will not mind what the outcome of the event is and the bet(s) will detract only marginally from the profit on our original bet should it be successful. Unfortunately these circumstances arise most often when we will not wish to hedge. For instance, if our bet is for team A to win and we are considering hedging against the draw or team B winning the best value available on the draw and team B winning will be when team A is winning! The bigger the margin by which team A is winning the better will be the odds for the other outcomes! In the circumstances where team A is winning we may not wish to hedge at all. Where team A is losing or the match is being drawn, as time progresses the odds for the alternative results will reduce or lenghten, depending upon how things stand at the time. The problem is that by the time we decide we should hedge the odds available for the bet we wish to make may have become prohibitively short.
Whether we hedge or not may also depend upon the outcome of other matches in the series. For instance, if we are on the third match of our trixie, the previous two selections having already won producing us a return of say £70 against our £100 total stakes, we may not consider it worthwhile hedging the third match where we stand to lose only £30. However, if we are comparing this with possible winnings of say £250 if the third match goes our way we may be quite prepared to eat into this profit to some extent to guarantee a winning outcome — including a profit on our hedge bet or bets.
We don’t normally hedge on the first two matches in our trixie series. We have, on occasion, hedged on the third match. If we hedge on the early matches we feel that all we are doing is increasing the amount of stakes we have to cover on the last match if the hedge bet “goes wrong” and our original bet is successful on the first two legs.
The principle we use, therefore, it is to let matters run their course and take what the results produce for the first two matches in the three match trixie series. When we get to the third match we may hedge at least to cover our stake and possibly with a view to producing a profit on the hedge bet. We would normally hedge “in play” as we can assess the position as the match progresses. It is also often possible to obtain much better odds during the course of the match depending on how things are panning out rather than placing our hedge bet before the kick-off.
As we mentioned previously, we do not consider the decision to hedge to be a hugely scientific one. It is a question of when we get into the third match if the odds are such that we can generate a level of profit no matter what the outcome, without unduly eating into the profit should our original bet should be successful, we will do so. In deciding whether to hedge we will, of course, take account of the way the match stands at time rather than blindly going ahead with our hedge bet or bets simply because the odds are right. Quite often the odds are in our favour as far as our potential hedge bets are concerned because the state of play is such that our original bet has a high probability of winning. We therefore generally wait until fairly well into the match before we hedge and then only if the odds on offer are suitable.
We have deliberately avoided giving numerical examples in this post as they can be quite misleading. However, it is often possible to obtain high-value odds for the alternative results, particularly when the original selection is winning. For instance, if our selection is winning 1 — 0 with 10 minutes to go and the draw odds are 13 — 2 with the odds for the other team winning at 20 — 1 we may well risk, say, £20 on the draw and £10 on the other team winning to give us an overall profit whatever the outcome. Certainly in the circumstance where we are winning 1 — 0 with 10 minutes to go there is a high likelihood that we would hedge against a draw.
We hope you have found this post of some help considering whether you should hedge your bets. We will generally e-mail our subscribers as we make hedge bets if you follow us on Twitter whenever possible we will “tweet” our hedge bets as we make them.
Wishing you good luck with your betting and in all you do.
Alex
alex@bestbetsoccer.com
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